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Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

TitleCoronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2003
AuthorsChambless LE, Folsom AR, A Sharrett R, Sorlie P, Couper D, Szklo M, Nieto JF
JournalJ Clin Epidemiol
Volume56
Issue9
Pagination880-90
Date Published2003 Sep
ISSN0895-4356
KeywordsAge Factors, Aged, Biomarkers, Blood Coagulation Factors, Carotid Arteries, Continental Population Groups, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Complications, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Hypertension, Lipoprotein(a), Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Sex Factors, Smoking, Tunica Intima
Abstract

Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.

DOI10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00055-6
Alternate JournalJ Clin Epidemiol
PubMed ID14505774
Grant ListN01-HC-55015 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55016 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55018 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55019 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55020 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55021 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55022 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States