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Identifying individuals at high risk for diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

TitleIdentifying individuals at high risk for diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2005
AuthorsSchmidt M I, Duncan BB, Bang H, Pankow JS, Ballantyne CM, Golden SH, Folsom AR, Chambless LE
Corporate AuthorsAtherosclerosis Risk in Communities Investigators
JournalDiabetes Care
Volume28
Issue8
Pagination2013-8
Date Published2005 Aug
ISSN0149-5992
KeywordsArteriosclerosis, Blood Glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Lipids, Male, Middle Aged, Prediabetic State, Risk Factors, Time Factors, United States
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate clinical rules to predict risk for diabetes in middle-aged adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities is a cohort study conducted from 1987-1989 to 1996-1998. We studied 7,915 participants 45-64 years of age, free of diabetes at baseline, and ascertained 1,292 incident cases of diabetes by clinical diagnosis or oral glucose tolerance testing.

RESULTS: We derived risk functions to predict diabetes using logistic regression in a random half of the sample. Rules based on these risk functions were evaluated in the other half. A risk function based on waist, height, hypertension, blood pressure, family history of diabetes, ethnicity, and age was performed similarly to one based on fasting glucose (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.71 and 0.74, respectively; P = 0.2). Risk functions composed of the clinical variables plus fasting glucose (AUC 0.78) and additionally including triglycerides and HDL cholesterol (AUC 0.80) performed better (P

CONCLUSIONS: Rules derived from clinical information, alone or combined with simple laboratory measures, can characterize degrees of diabetes risk in middle-aged adults, permitting preventive actions of appropriate intensity. Rules based on the metabolic syndrome are reasonable alternatives to rules derived from risk functions.

DOI10.2337/diacare.28.8.2013
Alternate JournalDiabetes Care
PubMed ID16043747
Grant List5R01-DK56918-03 / DK / NIDDK NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55015 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55016 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55017 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55018 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55019 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55020 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55021 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55022 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States