Long-term association between self-reported signs and symptoms and heart failure hospitalizations: the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study.

AIMS: Although studies of the accuracy of heart failure (HF) classification scoring systems are available, few have examined their performance when restricted to self-reported items.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated the association between a simplified version of the Gothenburg score, a validated HF score comprised of cardiac and pulmonary signs and symptoms and medication use, and incident HF hospitalizations in 15,430 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants. Gothenburg scores (range: 0-3) were constructed using self-reported items obtained at study baseline (1987-89). Incident HF hospitalization over 14.7 years of follow-up was defined as the first identified hospitalization with an ICD-9 discharge code of 428 (n = 1,668). Self-reported Gothenburg scores demonstrated very high agreement with the original metric comprised of self-reported and clinical measures and were directly associated with incident HF hospitalizations: [score = 1: hazard rate ratio (HRR) = 1.23 (1.07-1.42); score = 2: HRR = 2.17 (1.92-2.43); score = 3: HRR = 3.98 (3.37-4.70)].

CONCLUSION: In a population-based cohort, self-reported Gothenburg criteria items were associated with hospitalized HF over a prolonged follow-up time. The association was also consistent across groups defined by sex and race, suggesting that this simple score deserves further study as a screening tool for the identification of individuals at high risk of HF in resource-limited settings.