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Paired comparison of observed and expected coronary heart disease rates over 12 years from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

TitlePaired comparison of observed and expected coronary heart disease rates over 12 years from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsPaynter NP, A Sharrett R, Louis TA, Rosamond W, Folsom AR, Coresh J
JournalAnn Epidemiol
Volume20
Issue9
Pagination683-90
Date Published2010 Sep
ISSN1873-2585
KeywordsCohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Coronary Disease, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Maryland, Middle Aged, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, Residence Characteristics, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Surveys and Questionnaires, Time Factors
Abstract

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factor levels and changes over time and population-wide CHD morbidity and mortality.

METHODS: We used a paired cohort and community surveillance of hospitalized myocardial infarction and CHD deaths of community members 53 to 64 years of age in four geographic areas to compare observed community CHD to expected CHD rates and trends based on cohort risk factors.

RESULTS: Observed CHD rates declined by 1% to 3% per year in all communities except one, whereas CHD death rates declined 3% to 6% per year in all communities. Risk factor trends predicted a 2% to 3% per year decline in both total events and death. In all communities except one, expected rates of total CHD events were lower than the observed rates, whereas expected and observed CHD death rates were similar. Across all communities women had a higher CHD death rate than expected.

CONCLUSION: Overall, trends in CHD risk factors provide a useful indicator of changes in community event rates and of CHD death, but caution is warranted in prediction of absolute risk of CHD events.

DOI10.1016/j.annepidem.2010.05.016
Alternate JournalAnn Epidemiol
PubMed ID20696408
PubMed Central IDPMC2928717
Grant ListN01HC55020 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055022 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55018 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024-31 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55022 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024-29 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55016 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055018 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024-32 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55022 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55021 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55015 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055019 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55019 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024-28 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55015 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55020 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55016 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055015 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055021 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55019 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055020 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01-HC-55018 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55021 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32HL07024 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007024-30 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01 HC055016 / HC / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States