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Lifetime Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Two Cohort Studies.

TitleLifetime Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Two Cohort Studies.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsBell EJ, Lutsey PL, Basu S, Cushman M, Heckbert SR, Lloyd-Jones DM
Secondary AuthorsFolsom AR
JournalAm J Med
Volume129
Issue3
Pagination339.e19-26
Date Published2016 Mar
ISSN1555-7162
KeywordsAfrican Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Anemia, Sickle Cell, Cohort Studies, Factor V, Follow-Up Studies, Heterozygote, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Middle Aged, Obesity, Risk, Sickle Cell Trait, United States, Venous Thromboembolism
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Greater public awareness of venous thromboembolism may be an important next step for optimizing venous thromboembolism prevention and treatment. "Lifetime risk" is an easily interpretable way of presenting risk information. Therefore, we sought to calculate the lifetime risk of venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) using data from 2 large, prospective cohort studies: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

METHODS: We followed participants aged 45-64 years in ARIC (n = 14,185) and ≥65 in CHS (n = 5414) at baseline visits (1987-1989 in ARIC, 1989-1990 and 1992-1993 in CHS) for incident venous thromboembolism (n = 728 in ARIC through 2011 and n = 172 in CHS through 2001). We estimated lifetime risks and 95% confidence intervals of incident venous thromboembolism using a modified Kaplan-Meier method, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes.

RESULTS: At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk of venous thromboembolism in ARIC was 8.1% (95% confidence interval, 7.1-8.7). High-risk groups were African Americans (11.5% lifetime risk), those with obesity (10.9%), heterozygous for the factor V Leiden (17.1%), or with sickle cell trait or disease (18.2%). Lifetime risk estimates differed by cohort; these differences were explained by differences in time period of venous thromboembolism ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS: At least 1 in 12 middle-aged adults will develop venous thromboembolism in their remaining lifetime. This estimate of lifetime risk may be useful to promote awareness of venous thromboembolism and guide decisions at both clinical and policy levels.

DOI10.1016/j.amjmed.2015.10.014
Alternate JournalAm J Med
PubMed ID26597668
PubMed Central IDPMC4771407
Grant ListHHSN268201100012C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100009I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100010C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100008C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
U01 HL080295 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005G / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100008I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005C / / PHS HHS / United States
R01 HL059367 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100007C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268200800007C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100009C / / PHS HHS / United States
HHSN268201100011I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100011C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC55222 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100010C / / PHS HHS / United States
N01HC85086 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
UL1 TR001422 / TR / NCATS NIH HHS / United States
T32 HL007779 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100006C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201200036C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100008C / / PHS HHS / United States
HHSN268201100012C / / PHS HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
R01AG023629 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100007C / / PHS HHS / United States
HHSN268200800007C / / PHS HHS / United States
N01HC85082 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100009C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100011C / / PHS HHS / United States
N01HC85083 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100007I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201200036C / / PHS HHS / United States
U01HL080295 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC85079 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100006C / / PHS HHS / United States
R01 AG023629 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
N01HC85080 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
N01HC85081 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
T32HL007779 / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States