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Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

TitlePast Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsKovesdy CP, Coresh JJ, Ballew SH, Woodward M, Levin A, Naimark DMJ, Nally J, Rothenbacher D, Stengel B, Iseki K, Matsushita K
Secondary AuthorsLevey AS
Corporate AuthorsCKD Prognosis Consortium
JournalJ Am Soc Nephrol
Date Published2016 08
KeywordsDisease Progression, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Time Factors

eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGFR

Alternate JournalJ Am Soc Nephrol
PubMed ID26657867
PubMed Central IDPMC4978053
Grant ListR01 DK100446 / DK / NIDDK NIH HHS / United States