Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Cumulative Cigarette Use and the Impact of Smoking Intensity.

BACKGROUND: Relative risks (RRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) by smoking rate exhibit a concave pattern, with RRs in low rate smokers exceeding a linear extrapolation from higher rate smokers. However, cigarettes/day does not by itself fully characterize smoking-related risks. A reexamination of the concave pattern using a comprehensive representation of smoking may enhance insights.

METHODS: Data were from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective cohort enrolled in four areas of the US in 1987-1989. Follow-up was through 2008. Analyses included 14,233 participants, 245,915 person-years, and 3,411 CVD events.

RESULTS: The concave RRs with cigarettes/day were consistent with cigarettes/day modifying a linear RR association of pack-years with CVD (i.e., strength of the pack-years association depended on cigarettes/day, indicating that the manner of pack-years accrual impacted risk). Smoking fewer cigarettes/day for longer duration was more deleterious than smoking more cigarettes/day for shorter duration (P

CONCLUSION: Pack-years remained the primary determinant of smoking-related CVD risk; however, accrual influenced RRs. For equal pack-years, smoking fewer cigarettes/day for longer duration was more deleterious than smoking more cigarettes/day for shorter duration. This observation provides clues to better understanding the biological mechanisms, and reinforces the importance of cessation rather than smoking less to reduce CVD risk.