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Carotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

TitleCarotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsBekwelem W, Jensen PN, Norby FL, Soliman EZ, Agarwal SK, Lip GYH, Pan W, Folsom AR, Longstreth WT, Alonso A, Heckbert SR
Secondary AuthorsChen LYee
JournalStroke
Volume47
Issue6
Pagination1643-6
Date Published2016 06
ISSN1524-4628
KeywordsAged, Atrial Fibrillation, Carotid Artery Diseases, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Plaque, Atherosclerotic, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke
Abstract

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Whether consideration of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque would improve risk prediction of ischemic stroke in persons with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the improvement in risk prediction of stroke by adding cIMT and carotid plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc (variables age, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease) score.

METHODS: We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age, 63 years) who developed AF within 5 years after carotid measurement, were not on warfarin, and had no prior stroke at AF diagnosis. AF was ascertained from study ECGs and diagnosis codes, and stroke was physician adjudicated. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess association between carotid indices and ischemic stroke. Improvement in 10-year risk prediction of stroke was assessed by the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement.

RESULTS: There were 81 (11.2%) stroke events that occurred among 724 participants with AF during a mean follow-up of 8.5 years. Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque were significantly associated with increased stroke risk. The addition of cIMT+plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc score marginally increased the C-statistic (95% confidence interval) from 0.685 (0.623-0.747) to 0.698 (0.638-0.759). The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement for cIMT+plaque were 0.091 (95% confidence interval, 0.012-0.170) and 0.101 (95% confidence interval, 0.002-0.226), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque are associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in individuals with AF. Furthermore, they may improve risk prediction of stroke, over and above the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

DOI10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.013133
Alternate JournalStroke
PubMed ID27217511
PubMed Central IDPMC4880451
Grant ListHHSN268201100012C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100009I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100010C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100008C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100007C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100011C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100006C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100007I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
R21 AG042660 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005G / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100008I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
16EIA26410001 / AHA / American Heart Association-American Stroke Association / United States
HHSN268201100011I / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100009C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States
HHSN268201100005C / HL / NHLBI NIH HHS / United States