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Ectopy on a Single 12-Lead ECG, Incident Cardiac Myopathy, and Death in the Community.

TitleEctopy on a Single 12-Lead ECG, Incident Cardiac Myopathy, and Death in the Community.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsNguyen KT, Vittinghoff E, Dewland TA, Dukes JW, Soliman EZ, Stein PK, Gottdiener JS, Alonso A, Chen LYee, Psaty BM, Heckbert SR
Secondary AuthorsMarcus GM
JournalJ Am Heart Assoc
Date Published2017 Aug 03
KeywordsAged, Atrial Fibrillation, Atrial Premature Complexes, Cardiomyopathies, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Ventricular Premature Complexes

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and heart failure are 2 of the most common diseases, yet ready means to identify individuals at risk are lacking. The 12-lead ECG is one of the most accessible tests in medicine. Our objective was to determine whether a premature atrial contraction observed on a standard 12-lead ECG would predict atrial fibrillation and mortality and whether a premature ventricular contraction would predict heart failure and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We utilized the CHS (Cardiovascular Health) Study, which followed 5577 participants for a median of 12 years, as the primary cohort. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study), the replication cohort, captured data from 15 792 participants over a median of 22 years. In the CHS, multivariable analyses revealed that a baseline 12-lead ECG premature atrial contraction predicted a 60% increased risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0;

CONCLUSIONS: Based on a single standard ECG, a premature atrial contraction predicted incident atrial fibrillation and death and a premature ventricular contraction predicted incident heart failure and death, suggesting that this commonly used test may predict future disease.

Alternate JournalJ Am Heart Assoc
PubMed ID28775064
PubMed Central IDPMC5586444
Grant List16EIA26410001 / AHA / American Heart Association-American Stroke Association / United States