Diabetes, GDF-15 and incident heart failure: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Elevated circulating growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), a marker of cellular stress, is associated with both heart failure (HF) and diabetes. However, it is unclear to what extent GDF-15 is associated with HF among individuals with and without diabetes.

METHODS: We evaluated 10,570 participants free of HF at Visit 3 (1993-1995) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We used Cox regression to evaluate the joint associations of GDF-15 and diabetes with incident HF. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS: Among a total of 10,570 individuals (mean age of 60.0 years, 54% women, 27% black adults), elevated GDF-15 (≥75th percentile) was more common in people with diabetes compared with those without diabetes (32.8% vs 23.6%, p

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In a community-based sample of US adults, GDF-15 provided complementary prognostic information on the HF risk, especially among individuals with diabetes.